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SCENARIOS IN THE STRATEGIC PLANNING IN THE TURBULENT STATE ENVIRONMENT
PRACTICAL CONTEXT
Abstract
The main aim of the article was to present the practical use of the scenario planning
method in security research in turbulent state environment. Scenarios of state’s environment
(realistic, surprise, pessimistic and optimistic scenarios) are useful tools
while creating the multidimensional images of the future and are commonly used
in long-term planning for the state security. A clear advantage of scenario methods,
which are not simply extrapolations of past trends, is the possibility of multidimensional
and multivariate anticipated future states conditions in the turbulent state’s
environment. Multivariant feature is therefore an important advantage of scenarios
as they can be quite different depending on the selection of baseline categories
(i.e. threats, opportunities, weaknesses and strengths).
For the article purpose, the construction of the scenario of state’s environment was
conducted – the optimistic type. In the article the main research method was Delphi
method. The tools such as the multi-criteria matrix for threats and opportunities
identification and evaluation in the forecast period, the scheme for evaluating key
success factors, the TOWS matrix and scenario multi-criteria matrix were also used.
Keywords:
state security, scenario planning, turbulent environment, anticipationMost read articles by the same author(s)
- Justyna Jurczak, FORMULATING STATE’S MISSION AND VISION FOR THE NATIONAL SECURITY STRATEGY , Security Forum: Vol. 9 No. 1 (2025)
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