The objective of this paper is to analyse the impact on consumption and employment of state-level stay-at-home orders (SHO) in the USA at the state and county levels. Moreover, it answers the following research question: Can SHO have non-negative effects on consumption (heterogeneity across sectors) and some elements of employment (heterogeneity across wages and sectors)? The data contain proxy variables (high-frequency data on credit and debit card spending and job positions). This research utilises the data on the pandemic and public stay-at-home orders for all US states in 2020,
applying the fixed effects (LSDV) difference-in-differences approach to answer the research question and obtain the empirical results. The overall findings indicate that the non-negative outcomes of stay-at-home orders on consumption, and some elements of employment, are possible. In addition, this
research justifies the possibility of applying depersonalised high-frequency data for economic analysis. Furthermore, the empirical evidence supports the hypothesis that SHO can be an economic factor influencing both consumption and employment. Thus, certain regions can pursue independent policies
to counter the pandemic and similar threats, while not fearing that such orders will necessarily affect the unemployment rate and citizens’ consumption (hence, fulfilling the precautions and measures that are suggested in the present paper).
Affinity Solutions (2020), Data for good, retrieved from: https://www.affinity.solutions/dataforgood (accessed 16 April 2022).
Altman, E. I. (1968), Financial Ratios, Discriminant Analysis and the Prediction of Corporate Bankruptcy, The Journal of Finance, 23(4), 589-609. https://doi.org/10.2307/2978933
Ananyev, M., Guriev, S. (2019), Effect of Income on Trust: Evidence from the 2009 Economic Crisis in Russia, The Economic Journal, 129(619), 1082–1118. https://doi.org/10.1111/ECOJ.12612
Babecký, J., Campos, N. F. (2011), Does reform work? An econometric survey of the reform-growth puzzle, Journal of Comparative Economics, 39(1), 140-158. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jce.2010.11.001
Babecky, J., Havranek, T. (2014), Structural reforms and growth in transition, Economics of Transition, 22(1), 13-42. https://doi.org/10.1111/ecot.12029
Banaszyk, P., Deszczyński, P., Gorynia, M., Malaga, K. (2021), The Covid-19 pandemic as a potential change agent for selected economic concepts, Entrepreneurial Business and Economics Review, 9(4), 35-50. https://doi.org/10.15678/EBER.2021.090403
Berk, J. B., DeMarzo, P. M. (2019), Corporate Finance, New York: Pearson. Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation (2020), Nonprofit Fighting Poverty, Disease, and Inequity around the World, retrieved from: https://www.gatesfoundation.org/ (accessed 23 August2022).
Galbraith, J.K. (1998), The Affluent Society. New York: Mariner Books. https://doi.org/10.2307/1925471
Brealey, R., Myers, S., Allen, F. (2020), Principles of Corporate Finance. New York: McGraw-Hill Education.
Caraiani, P. (2018), Introduction to Quantitative Macroeconomics with Julia: State-Of-The-Art Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium Models. New York: Academic Press, Inc.
Carayannis, E. G., Barth, T. D., Campbell, D. F. (2012), The Quintuple Helix innovation model: global warming as a challenge and driver for innovation, Journal of Innovation and Entrepreneurship, 1(2), 1-12. https://doi.org/10.1186/2192-5372-1-2
Carayannis, E. G., Campbell, D. F. J. (2010), Triple Helix, Quadruple Helix and Quintuple Helix and How Do Knowledge, Innovation and the Environment Relate to Each Other?, International Journal of Social Ecology and Sustainable Development, 1(1), 41-69. https://doi.org/10.4018/jsesd.2010010105
Card, D., Krueger, A. B. (1994), Minimum wages and employment: A case study of the fast-food industry in New Jersey and Pennsylvania, American Economic Review, 84(4), 772-793. https://doi.org/10.2307/2118030
Carrier, J. G., Heyman, J. M. (1997), Consumption and Political Economy, The Journal of the Royal Anthropological Institute, 3(2), 355-373. https://doi.org/10.2307/3035024
Carruth, A., Henley, A. (1993), Housing Assets and Consumer Spending: A Regional Analysis, Regional Studies, 27(7), 611-621. https://doi.org/10.1080/00343409312331347805
Chacón, J. L. T. (2016), Introduction to Dynamic Macroeconomic General Equilibrium Models. New York: Vernon Press.
Chetty, R., Friedman, J. N., Hendren, N., Stephner, M. (2020), How Did COVID-19 and Stabilization Policies Affect Spending and Employment? A New Real-Time Economic Tracker Based on Private Sector Data, National Bureau of Economic Research (unpublished working paper).
Damodaran, A. (2014), Applied Corporate Finance.
New York: John Wiley & Sons, Dingel, J. I., Neiman, B. (2020), How many jobs can be done at home?, Journal of Public Economics, 189, 1-8. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jpubeco.2020.104235
Doepke, M., Lehnert, A., Sellgren, A. (1999), Macroeconomics, Chicago: University of Chicago.
Doepke, M., Zilibotti, F. (2019), Love, Money, and Parenting: How Economics Explains the Way We Raise Our Kids, Princeton: Princeton University Press.
Douglas, M., Isherwood, B. (1996), The World of Goods: Towards an Anthropology of Consumption, New York: Routledge.
Earnin (2020), Employment data, retrieved from: https://www.earnin.com/ (accessed 16 April 2022).
Ershova, N. (2017), Investment climate in Russia and challenges for foreign business: The case of Japanese companies, Journal of Eurasian Studies, 8, 151-160. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.euras.2017.03.001
Fama, E. F., Cochrane, J. H., Moskowit, T. J. (2017), The Fama Portfolio: Selected Papers of Eugene F. Fama. Chicago: University of Chicago Press.
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis (2020), Personal Consumption Expenditures by State, retrieved from: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/release?rid=391 (accessed 16 April 2022).
Feenstra, R., Inklaar, R., Timmer, M. (2021), Penn World Table version 10.0, retrieved from: https://www.rug.nl/ggdc/productivity/pwt/?lang=en (accessed 16 April 2022).
Firat, A. F., Dholakia, N. (2003), Consuming people: From Political Economy to Theaters of Consumption, New York: Routledge. https://doi.org/10.4324/9780203449813_chapter_9
Ganong, P., Noel, P. (2016), How Does Unemployment Affect Consumer Spending?, retrieved from: https://scholar.harvard.edu/files/ganong/files/ganong_jmp_unemployment_spending.pdf (accessed 16 April 2022).
Giuliano, P., Spilimbergo, A. (2014), Growing up in a Recession, The Review of Economic Studies, 81(2), 787–817. https://doi.org/10.1093/RESTUD/RDT040
Goerke, L. (2002), Taxes and Unemployment: Collective Bargaining and Efficiency Wage Models, New York: Springer.
Google (2020a), COVID-19 Community Mobility Reports, retrieved from: https://www.google.com/covid19/mobility/data_documentation.html?hl=en (accessed 16 April 2022).
Google (2020b), Google Cloud databases, retrieved from: https://cloud.google.com/products/databases (accessed 16 April 2022).
Google (2020c), Open source databases, retrieved from: https://cloud.google.com/solutions/opensource-databases (accessed 16 April 2022).
Harapan, H., Itoh, N., Yufika, A., Winardi, W., Keam, S., Te, H., Megawati, D., Hayati, Z., Wagner, A. L., Mudatsir, M. (2020), Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19), A literature review, Journal of Infection and Public Health, 13, 667-673. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jiph.2020.03.019
Harrod, R. F., Hicks, J. R. (1939), Value and Capital, The Economic Journal, 49(194), 294-300. https://doi.org/10.2307/2225091
Hicks, J. R. (1959), A “value and capital” growth model, Review of Economic Studies, 6(3), 159-173. https://doi.org/10.2307/2295744
Huntington, S. P.(1993), The Clash of Civilisations?, Foreign Affairs, 72(3), 22-49. https://doi.org/10.2307/20045621
International Monetary Fund (2022), IMF Data, retrieved from: https://www.imf.org/en/Data (accessed 16 April 2022).
Intuit (2020), Employment data, retrieved from: https://www.intuit.com/ (accessed 16 April 2022).
Jackson, L. F. (1984), Hierarchic Demand and the Engel Curve for Variety, The Review of Economics and Statistics, 66(1), 8-15. https://doi.org/10.2307/1924690
Jia, D. L. (2020), Dynamic Macroeconomic Models in Emerging Market Economies: DSGE Modelling with Financial and Housing Sectors, New York: Palgrave MacMillan.
Johns Hopkins University (2020), Johns Hopkins University: Official Web Page, retrieved from: https://www.jhu.edu/ (accessed 16 April 2022).
Kahn, L. B. (2010), The long-term labor market consequences of graduating from college in a bad economy, Labour Economics, 17(2), 303–316. https://doi.org/10.1016/J.LABECO.2009.09.002
Keynes, J. M. (1936), The General Theory of Employment, Interest and Money: in: Political Science Quarterly. Project Gutenberg of Australia eBook. https://doi.org/10.2307/2143949
Kitrar, L., Lipkind, T. (2021), The relationship of economic sentiment and GDP growth in Russia in light of the Covid-19 crisis, Entrepreneurial Business and Economics Review, 9(1), 7-29. https://doi.org/10.15678/EBER.2021.090101
Kronos (2020), Employment, retrieved from: https://www.kronos.com/ (accessed 16 April 2022).
Krugman, P., Wells, R. (2018), Macroeconomics (5th edition), Worth Publishers Macmillan Learning, retrieved from: www.macmillanlearning.com (accessed 16 April 2022).
Kuznets, S. (1941), The Structure of the American Economy, 1919–1929, The Journal of Economic History, 246. https://doi.org/10.1017/s0022050700053158
Lee, D. D., Faff, R. W. (2009), Corporate Sustainability Performance and Idiosyncratic Risk: A Global Perspective, Financial Review, 44(2), 213–237. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1540-6288.2009.00216.x
Leite, W. (2017), Propensity Score Matching, in: Prac-tical Propensity Score Methods Using R, London: SAGE. https://doi.org/10.4135/9781071802854.n5
Léon, F., Zins, A. (2020), Regional foreign banks and financial inclusion: Evidence from Africa, Economic Modelling, 18(3), 1-49. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.econmod.2019.03.012
Levitt, T. (1983a), After the sale is over, Harvard Business Review (e-copy).
Levitt, T. (1983b), The globalization of the markets, Harvard Business Review, 25(3), 17-19.
Lewbel, A., Pendakur, K. (2008), Estimation of collective household models with Engel curves, Journal of Econometrics, 147(2), 350-358. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jeconom.2008.09.012
Li, N. (2019), An Engel Curve for Variety, The Review of Economics and Statistics, 11, 1-44. https://doi.org/10.1162/rest_a_00879
Lucas, R. E. J. (1976), Econometric policy evaluation: A critique. Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, 1, 19-46. https://doi.org/10.1016/s0167-2231(76),0003-6
Lucas, R. E. J., Sargent, T. (1981), Rational Expectations and Econometric Practice, Vol. 1. Minneapolis: University Of Minnesota Press.
Lutz, F. A., Samuelson, P. A. (1961), The Evaluation of ‘Social Income’: Capital Formation and Wealth, The Theory of Capital. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-1-349-08452-4_3
Murphy, J. J. (1999), Technical Analysis of the Financial Markets: A Comprehensive Guide to Trading Methods and Applications, New York: New York Institute of Finance.
Nissanke, M., Thorbecke, E. (2007), The Impact of Globalization on the World’s Poor: Transmission Mechanisms, New York: Palgrave MacMillan.
Our World in Data (2020), Our World in Data, retrieved from: https://ourworldindata.org/ (accessed 16 April 2022).
Panel on Redesigning the BLS Consumer Expenditure Surveys, Committee on National Statistics, Division of Behavioral and Social Sciences and Education, National Research Council, Dillman, D. A., and House, C. C. (2013),
Measuring What We Spend: Toward a New Consumer Expenditure Survey. Washington: National Academies Press.
Paychex. (2020), Employment data, retrieved from: https://www.paychex.com/ (accessed 16 April 2022).
Perloff, J. (2014), Microeconomics. LA: University of California.
Phelps, E. S. (1990), Seven Schools of Macroeconomic Thought: The Arne Ryde Lectures, New York: Clarendon Press.
Pullano, G., Valdano, E., Scarpa, N., Rubrichi, S., Colizza, V. (2020), Evaluating the effect of demographic factors, socioeconomic factors, and risk aversion on mobility during the COVID-19 epidemic in France under lockdown: a population-based study, The Lancet Digital Health, 2(12), 638–649. https://doi.org/10.1016/S2589-7500(20),0243-0
Ross, C., Campbell, A. (2008), Federalism and local politics in Russia, New York: Routledge. https://doi.org/10.4324/9780203891513
Seale, J. L., Bai, J., Wahl, T. I., Lohmar, B. T. (2012), Household Engel curve analysis for food, Beijing, China, China Agricultural Economic Review, 4(4), 427-439. https://doi.org/10.1108/17561371211284795
Shell, K., and Mishan, E. J. (1975), The Costs of Economic Growth, The Journal of Finance, Auckland: Penguin Books. https://doi.org/10.2307/2325366
Shemetev, A. (2012), Complex financial analysis and bankruptcy prognosis and also financial management-marketing manual for self-tuition book (1st edition), retrieved from: https://books.google.cz/books/about/Complex_financial_analysis_and_bankruptc.html?id=iViOs-ALV23QCandredir_esc=y (accessed 16 April 2022).
Shemetev, A., Pelucha, M. (2021), Did stay-at-homeorders produce a significant effect on consumer spending and employment in the US?, International Days of Science, 37–53, retrieved from: http://idsconference.cz/wp-content/uploads/2021/05/International-Days-of-Science-2021-proceedings.pdf (accessed 16 April 2022).
Slobodyan, S., Wouters, R. (2012), Learning in an estimated medium-scale DSGE model, Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, 36, 26-46. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jedc.2011.01.016
Stiglitz, J. E. (2005), The Ethical Economist. Growth may be everything, but it’s not the only thing. Review Essay of “The Moral Consequences of Economic Growth by B.M. Friedman”, Knopf, 2005, Foreign Affairs, 84(6), 128-134.
Sun, J., Harimaya, K., Yamori, N. (2013), Regional economic development, strategic investors, and efficiency of Chinese city commercial banks, Journal of Banking and Finance, 37, 1602–1611. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jbankfin.2012.12.013
The Opportunity Insights (2020), The Opportunity Insights Economic Tracker: Supporting the Recovery from COVID-19, retrieved from: https://opportunityinsights.org/ (accessed 16 April 2022).
Trigg, A. B. (2004), Deriving the Engel curve: Pierre Bourdieu and the social critique of Maslow’s hierarchy of needs, Review of Social Economy, 62(3), 393-406. https://doi.org/10.1080/0034676042000253987
US Bureau of Economic Analysis (2020a), Consumer Spending, retrieved from: https://www.bea.gov/data/consumer-spending/main (accessed 16 April 2022).
US Bureau of Economic Analysis (2020b), Regional Economic Accounts, retrieved from: https://www.bea.gov/data/economic-accounts/regional (accessed 16 April 2022).
Williamson, J. (2018), Macroeconomics, New York: Pearson.
World Bank (2022), World Bank Open Data, retrieved from: https://data.worldbank.org/ (accessed 16 April 2022).
World Health Organization (2020), WHO Coronavirus Disease (COVID-19), Dashboard. World Health Organization, retrieved from: https://covid19.who.int/ (accessed 16 April 2022).
Worldometer (2020), Coronavirus data, retrieved from: https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/ (accessed 16 April 2022).
Yee, T. W. (2015), Erratum: Vector Generalized Linear and Additive Models (With an Implementation in R), New York: Springer. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-1-4939-2818-7