Correlation between Agri-Market Subjects: A Case Study of  Ukraine – EU vs. EU – China

Oksana Kiforenko

doi:10.23762/FSO_VOL11_NO2_5

Published : 2023-06-30

Vol. 11 No. 2 (2023)

Correlation between Agri-Market Subjects: A Case Study of Ukraine – EU vs. EU – China

Oksana Kiforenko

https://orcid.org/0000-0001-8838-0068

DOI: https://doi.org/10.23762/FSO_VOL11_NO2_5

Abstract

Agriculture is vitally important for the survival of mankind in both a general and individual sense, as it provides food for people and forage for domestic animals. Due to the differences in climatic conditions, the availability of water, the costs and skills of the labour force, etc. countries have diverse food security possibilities. Thereby, exporters of agricultural products gain increasing economic, and consequently political, importance either locally or globally as they have agro-produce surpluses which they can deliver to secure food availability. The local and global agricultural product markets function according to their own laws with their colossi players being related with each other, stating their game rules on the said markets. Therefore, the research problem considers whether a small country such as Ukraine, without a great deal of political influence at a global level and not being especially economically developed, has any correlation with a giant player on both the global economic and political stages such as the EU. The purpose of the research is to evaluate whether the export of agricultural products from Ukraine to the EU27 has any correlation with the export of agricultural products from the EU27 to China and, if so, how strong that correlation is. The research has been conducted using such methods and tools as comparative analysis, univariate analysis, the Pearson correlation coefficient, the Spearman rank correlation coefficient, the tabular method, as well as data visualisation tools – a line graph, bar charts, box plots and a scatter plot. The data analysed in the article are the food, drinks and tobacco (SITC 0+1) exports of Ukraine to the EU27 and of the EU27 to China, measured in millions of Euros. The timeframe of the data analysed in the article is 10 years – from 2012 to 2021 inclusive. The value of the Pearson correlation coefficient points to the existence of a strong positive correlation between the analysed data sets, while the value of the Spearman correlation coefficient points to the existence of strong – indeed close to perfect – positive correlation between the data sets under research. The p-values corresponding to both the abovementioned coefficients point to the statistical significance of the results obtained and the rejection of H0. The research will contribute a great deal to all the spheres of scientific research connected with data analysis, politics and economics, international relations, international trade in general and of agricultural products in particular, etc. The research presented in this paper and the results thereof will be of interest to and highly useful for those involved in all segments of international trade, public administration officials, decision and policy makers, academic society representatives, as well as beginner and experienced data analysts alike.

Keywords:

agricultural products exports, correlation, China, the European Union, Ukraine, international trade

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Kiforenko, O. (2023). Correlation between Agri-Market Subjects: A Case Study of Ukraine – EU vs. EU – China. Forum Scientiae Oeconomia, 11(2), 111–131. https://doi.org/10.23762/FSO_VOL11_NO2_5

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